LAS VEGAS SANDS DOWN OVER 30% SINCE LATE NOVEMBER

🔴 Las Vegas Sands is down more than 30% since late November — and roughly $6 billion of buyback authorization is still sitting unused.

That authorization is about 20% of the company's current market cap. The dividend has also been reinstated.

CNBC Pro contributor Mike Khouw laid out the case. The stock trades at about 14x forward earnings, near the low end of its own historical range and barely above a 10-year low of 13x.

Here is the part he argues the market is ignoring. That 14x is built on Macau and Singapore alone. Sands is exploring development in Texas, the UAE, Thailand and Japan. None of it is in the price.

The Macau backdrop explains the discount. When Macau banned junket-extended VIP credit in the fourth quarter of 2021, the high-roller segment that once dominated headlines collapsed. Khouw notes VIP margins were never the best in the house anyway, thanks to commissions, perks and lower-edge games like baccarat.

Options are cheap alongside the stock. One-month implied volatility is around 28% versus a five-year average near 39% and a five-year low of 24%.

Khouw points to the 20-day moving average turning up and crossing the 50, and says LVS has outperformed the S&P since the start of H2 26. His example trade: November $50 calls at just over $2 a contract, about 4% of the stock price.

CNBC notes Tidal owns the securities mentioned. Opinions are the contributor's own and this is not investment advice.

Would you buy a casino stock that's down 30%, or wait for proof Macau is back?

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