JACKSON HOLE ENDS WITH NO RATE SIGNAL AT ALL

🔴 No rate signal. None.

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh spoke Friday at the Jackson Hole symposium and gave markets nothing to trade on.

CNBC reports he flagged concern about elevated inflation without saying whether rates should be higher. On the summer data: PCE and CPI readings came in better than expected, but he said they "do not tell me that underlying trends have meaningfully improved." The Fed's target is 2%.

Then he went after the tool traders rely on most. "You can call it an outline... you can call it a trail map... just don't call it forward guidance," he said, adding the practice "has overstayed its welcome."

He also declined to give a reaction function, the signal for what data would trigger a move. His answer: "our knowledge just doesn't extend that far."

📉 Compare that to last year, when then-Chair Jerome Powell hinted at cuts from the same stage and set off an aggressive rally.

Warsh, who marked his 100th day in office and took the job in May, has started five task forces reviewing Fed functions. The theme is a "quieter Fed." His words: market participants "should not be looking primarily to the Fed for their next trade."

CNBC also notes what he skipped: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's recently announced accelerated buybacks of government debt went unmentioned.

Do you want a Fed that tells markets what's coming, or one that makes traders read the data themselves?

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