GOLD AT $4,677.19 AND CLIMBING

🔴 Spot gold hit $4,677.19 an ounce, up 0.6% and the highest since mid-May.

CNBC reports the metal is being pushed by two forces at once.

One, the dollar. The dollar index has lost 0.8% so far this month, and a softer greenback makes dollar-priced gold cheaper for anyone holding another currency.

Two, yields. Treasury yields have been elevated for much of August, but the government's bond buyback plan has kept a lid on them, down 3 basis points this month. Lower yields shrink the opportunity cost of owning an asset that pays no income.

The scale of the run: UOB says gold is on track for its strongest monthly gain since September 1999. It has gained over 15% this month.

Futures were up 0.5% at 4,720.3, also a more than three-month high.

Silver came along for the ride. Spot silver gained 0.4% to $69.19 per ounce.

Now the risk. Investors are waiting on a speech from Fed Chair Warsh ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium later this week for clues on rates.

Citi wrote that a hawkish Warsh speech would likely bring the rally to a halt. A dovish surprise, per the note, would be "ultra-bullish" for gold, with the market pricing out rate hikes and refocusing on the debasement trade amid concerns over Fed independence and US debt sustainability.

So the whole month hangs on one speech.

Are you buying gold at $4,677, or is this the top?

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