30-YEAR TREASURY YIELD PARKED AT 5.2297%

🔴 The 30-year Treasury yield is sitting at 5.2297%.

The 10-year, the benchmark that prices mortgages, auto loans and credit card debt, was flat at 4.7021% on Tuesday. The 2-year, the one that moves with Fed rate decisions, held at 4.2421%.

CNBC reports yields steadied as traders wait for data.

The interesting part came Monday. Two senior Treasury officials indicated the department could tap its near $1 trillion General Account to fund ramped-up repurchases of government bonds. Borrowing costs moved lower on the signal. The officials did not say how much of that cash pile might actually be used.

That lands after what CNBC calls Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's historic intervention in bond markets last week.

Now the calendar takes over. July's personal consumption expenditures reading, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, is due Wednesday alongside the second-quarter GDP estimate. Weekly ADP employment change and new home sales come Tuesday.

Then Friday: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers the keynote at Jackson Hole.

Mabrouk Chetouane, head of global market strategy at Natixis Investment Managers, says the void left by Jerome Powell's departure in guiding market expectations remains. His warning: the meeting "could therefore disappoint the markets or even increase tensions on the long end of the yield curve, which is already under significant pressure."

A 30-year above 5% is not an abstraction. It is the cost of borrowing for everyone.

Are you expecting mortgage rates to come down this year, or not?

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