$4 GAS IS MOVING THE SENATE ODDS

🔴 Democrats are at 55% on Kalshi and 59% on Polymarket to take the U.S. Senate.

CNBC reports those are close to the best odds traders have given Democrats since the contracts opened.

The move tracks energy prices. Before the Iran war began on Feb. 28, both Kalshi and Polymarket had Republicans around 60% to hold the chamber. Odds slid as gas prices climbed. Republicans recovered in May and across the summer as the U.S. and Iran de-escalated and pump pressure eased.

Now it has turned again. U.S. oil is above $100 a barrel. Gasoline is above $4 a gallon nationally. Diesel is at an all-time high. Traders on these same markets expect gas prices to set new highs this year.

The map still favors Republicans on paper. They control 22 of the 35 Senate seats on the ballot, including special elections in Ohio and Florida. Democrats would need to flip seats in states Trump carried by 10% or more in 2024, including Alaska, Texas and Ohio.

Polling is pointing the same direction. A New York Times/Siena University poll out Wednesday showed likely voters nationwide favoring Democratic candidates by close to 9 percentage points.

CNBC discloses a commercial relationship with Kalshi that includes a minority investment.

Do gas prices decide this election?

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